By 2025, a period emerged where geopolitical preferences became more decisive in investment decisions. Companies are now acting not only based on market size but also on factors such as accessibility, political stability, logistical advantages, and cost management. One of the most significant developments shaping this picture was the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In particular, the conflict environment along the U.S.–Israel, Iran axis has increased uncertainty across various sectors—from energy prices to logistics routes—directly impacting investment decisions.

This tension has heightened risk perceptions for investors operating in the Gulf region and the Eastern Mediterranean, steering companies toward safer and more predictable markets. At the same time, fluctuations in energy costs reshaped production and supply chain planning. This situation signaled the dawn of a new era where investment is approached not only from an economic perspective but also through the lens of geopolitical risk management.

Although the European market remains challenging due to its high standards and regulations, it retained its importance thanks to its secure and predictable structure. However, market growth there is now driven not by new installations but rather by investments in modernization and transformation.

Russia and the Eurasian region continued to offer significant opportunities for Turkish firms, particularly due to the vacuum created by the withdrawal of Western companies. Nevertheless, financial transactions, collection processes, and political uncertainties necessitated controlled growth strategies in this market.

North Africa emerged as one of the most notable regions in 2025. Countries such as Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt, rising populations, housing needs, and infrastructure investments transformed this region into a strong growth area for both the construction and elevator sectors. This region also began to emerge more prominently as an alternative investment area to geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

In the Middle East, however, a different and more fragile picture emerged. While large-scale projects continued in the Gulf countries, a more selective and cautious approach was adopted toward new investments due to tensions along the U.S.–Israel–Iran axis. Lengthening project approval processes and rising risk premiums directly impacted the pace of investment in the region.

Nevertheless, high-budget and prestige projects continue to create opportunities for companies with strong technical capabilities.

The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and India, remained at the center of new installation volumes. Rapid urbanization and high population density kept elevator demand strong in this region, while the competitive strength of local manufacturers also influenced global balances.

Latin America, despite its significant potential, remained more of a “market to watch” in 2025 due to logistics costs and economic fluctuations. However, in the long term, this region is expected to return to the forefront with large-scale projects.

Construction projects: The new arena for export competition

By 2025, global construction and infrastructure projects began to take shape not so much around geographical distribution but rather around specific risk and opportunity axes. Rising financing costs, tightening public budgets, and global uncertainties led to projects being evaluated not only based on economic feasibility but also on criteria such as geopolitical risk, energy costs, and supply security. This situation has shifted international projects away from the traditional realm of “regional opportunities,” transforming them into a multi-layered competitive landscape.

One of the most decisive factors in this new equation has been the Russia–Ukraine war. As the war drags on, construction investments in Europe and its surrounding regions have been directly impacted, while the vacuum created by the withdrawal of Western firms from the Russian market has opened up new competitive areas. While Turkish construction firms and industrial manufacturers managed to partially fill this void, financial transfer processes, sanctions, and collection risks turned this market into a high-potential yet equally risky arena. Consequently, while the appetite for growth in projects persists, risk management has emerged as a top priority.

Another critical turning point was the rising tensions in the Middle East. The mutual tensions along the U.S.–Israel–Iran axis and regional uncertainty directly impacted decision-making processes, particularly in large-scale infrastructure and real estate projects. While ongoing mega-projects in Gulf countries did not come to a complete halt, a more selective approach was adopted for new projects. Investors are now focusing not only on scale but also on a project’s sustainability, security, and financial return. While this has led to a limited contraction in the number of projects, it has increased the demand for technical expertise and organizational capacity.

Driven by these two major geopolitical developments, a new shift in focus has emerged in global construction and project investments. Companies began shifting toward markets that are more predictable, yield faster results, and are more operationally manageable. In this context, markets with high housing demand, ongoing infrastructure investments, and government-backed projects have become more attractive because they offer a continuous workflow rather than large-scale individual projects.

At the same time, a significant change has also occurred in project structure. By 2025, modular projects that can be completed more quickly and are financially more controllable have taken center stage, replacing high-volume, long-term mega-projects. This has impacted not only the construction sector but also the industries directly related to elevator and vertical transportation systems. In particular, standardized solutions and rapidly deployable systems have become better aligned with this new project structure.

The global elevator market: The era of modernization

The global elevator and escalator market reached approximately $98.7 billion by 2025 and is expected to continue growing in the coming period. However, the structure of this growth has changed significantly compared to previous years.

While the impact of new installations on growth remains limited, the sector’s primary drivers have shifted to modernization, maintenance, and digital services. The renovation of existing elevators worldwide, investments in energy efficiency, and the upgrading of safety standards have emerged as key factors shaping the industry’s direction.

At the same time, the digital transformation process has brought about a fundamental shift in the sector. IoT-based monitoring systems, remote maintenance solutions, and data-driven service models have both enhanced operational efficiency and created new revenue streams. While the renovation of older building stock in Europe and North America has played a decisive role in the sector’s growth, the Asia-Pacific region has maintained its leadership in new installation volume. Africa and the Middle East, meanwhile, have emerged as new demand centers alongside rapid urbanization.

Turkish elevator sector: A qualitative transformation in exports

Despite the global economic slowdown, high financing costs, and delayed investments, the Turkish elevator sector demonstrated strong performance in foreign trade during the first ten months of 2025. However, the published data revealed a significant divergence among product groups rather than uniform growth across the sector. While packaged elevators and components continued to be the main drivers of exports, a significant contraction in the escalator and moving walkway segment was notable.

During the January–October 2025 period, the sector’s total exports amounted to $294.3 million, while imports stood at $144.3 million. Consequently, a trade surplus of approximately $150 million was achieved, thereby preserving the sector’s net foreign exchange-generating structure. This picture demonstrates that Turkey’s elevator industry possesses not only an export-oriented focus but also a robust production infrastructure capable of maintaining a balance against imports.

This performance holds particular significance given that it was achieved during a period marked by global trend toward financing difficulties in accessing funding, and the postponement of investment decisions. Turkey’s ability to rapidly access neighboring regions, its competitive pricing advantage, and production flexibility are among the key drivers behind this success. However, the data clearly indicate that the sector is no longer reliant on a single growth driver; different product groups are responding differently to varying economic conditions.

Package elevators on the rise, escalator segment under pressure

An analysis of 2025 data reveals that the sector’s strongest performance was in the package elevator segment.

Exports in this segment reached $166.3 million, marking an increase of approximately 3%. Achieving this growth during a period of slowing global construction investments indicates that standardized and rapidly deployable solutions are increasingly preferred by investors. Ongoing projects in North Africa, the Middle East, and neighboring markets also contributed to this demand.

In contrast, the escalator and moving walkway segment was the weakest link in 2025. Exports fell to the $1 million level with a decline exceeding 31%, while imports also contracted by approximately 40%. This decline stems from the fact that this product group is largely dependent on public infrastructure investments such as metro systems, airports, and shopping centers. Throughout 2025, the slowdown in public investments and budget constraints in many countries made a contraction in demand in this segment inevitable.

On the components side, however, a more balanced picture emerged. Exports remained at the $128 million level, experiencing only a limited decline. The primary reason for this stability is that components are in constant demand not only for new installations but also for maintenance and modernization processes. However, the increase in imports exceeding 15% indicates that dependence on foreign sources persists, particularly in high-tech sectors such as drive and electronic systems.

This picture clearly reveals a three-tiered structure within the sector: packaged elevators serve as the main driver of growth, components maintain their stability, while the escalator segment remains under pressure depending on global investment conditions. Expectations for 2026 are largely dependent on the resumption of momentum in public infrastructure investments. Additionally, if the sector’s expansion into new markets and increased technology investments continue, the sector’s trade surplus is expected to strengthen further.

2026 outlook: The resurgence of exports

As we enter 2026, expectations point toward more balanced growth for both the global economy and the elevator sector. Potential improvements in financing conditions and a reduction in global uncertainties could reignite investment appetite.

Specifically for the elevator sector, urban renewal projects, the renovation of aging building stock, and smart building technologies will be the primary drivers of growth. At the same time, digital service models and maintenance services will continue to be among the sector’s new revenue streams. From Turkey’s perspective, increasing value-added exports, expanding into new markets, and accelerating technology investments stand out as the most critical priorities for 2026.